Berlin, den 31.08.2021, Autor: Matthias Ilgen
The current figures from the survey institutes confirm what some political scientists have been saying for 12 months, but which earned the laughter of the entire audience until four weeks ago: the SPD can still win the federal election. In the political mood, she has at least caught up with the Union and left the Greens well behind. If this trend continues, it will have an even greater impact on the projection on the Sunday question in the next few days and weeks - the closer to election day, the more likely it will be real votes.
Where does the sudden one come from "Comrade Trend"? The main reason for this lies in the candidate question, which for more than a third of voters is still the most important and decisive for their own voting decision: Who should be Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany? „Genosse Trend“? Die Ursache liegt vor allem in der Kandidatenfrage, die immer noch für mehr als ein Drittel der Wählerinnen und Wähler die maßgebliche und entscheidende für ihre eigene Wahlentscheidung ist: Wer soll Bundeskanzler der Bundesrepublik Deutschland sein?
This question has played a crucial role since the first federal election in 1949. Adenauer had put himself in the limelight as chairman of the parliamentary council on radio and in the press and, together with the Union parties, was surprisingly able to leave the election winner expected by all sides behind: the SPD. This resulted in 20 years of permanent rule by the CDU and CSU in the federal government. Adenauer could 1957 at the height of his power the union with the slogan "No experiments" even lead to an absolute majority. The Union only lost power in 1969 when it faced a new social-liberal government majority with two far less popular chancellors after a grand coalition from which the SPD emerged as a profiteer. „Keine Experimente“ sogar zur absoluten Mehrheit führen. Die Union verlor die Macht 1969 erst als sie mit zwei weit weniger beliebten Kanzlern nach einer großen Koalition, aus welcher die SPD als Profiteur hervorging, einer neuen sozialliberalen Regierungsmehrheit gegenüberstand.
Auch die SPD-Kanzler Brandt und Schmidt profitierten davon, dass sie sich in ihren Beliebtheitswerten weit von Ihrer Partei absetzen und so in den 70er Jahren die Mehrheiten für die sozialliberale Koalition sichern konnten. 1980 fiel der sogenannte Kanzlerbonus kurioserweise der FDP zu, die sogar dreist mit Schmidts Namen auf ihren Wahlplakaten geworben hatte. Entsprechend verloren die Liberalen bei den vorgezogenen Neuwahlen zum Bundestag 1983 beinahe die Hälfte Ihrer Mitglieder und Wähler, nachdem sie im Oktober 1982 in der laufenden Wahlperiode die Seiten zur Union gewechselt und Schmidt gestürzt hatte, um Helmut Kohl ins Amt zu bringen.
Kohl also put four social democratic challengers to flight. Only when the much more popular Gerhard Schröder took office after 16 long years and a poor labor market record for the Christian-liberal government after reunification, did he and the SPD pass Kohl and the Union. In 2002, in addition to the final spurt about the flood disaster and the Iraq war in favor of the government, it was above all the person of the Chancellor who saved the SPD its wafer-thin victory over the finish line. 42% of the SPD voters stated that they had chosen the party primarily because of the person of the Federal Chancellor - Schröder's popularity was about twice as high as that of his CSU challenger Edmund Stoiber, to whom his competitive edge in economic issues was ultimately of no use either .
In 2005, Angela Merkel had lost the election almost in the last few meters, mainly because of the continued high level of sympathy for the incumbent at the time, Gerhard Schröder. The Union floated high in the polls for months because red-green had only had a mixed government balance sheet until then. Nevertheless, the Chancellor scored one last time with his personality and caught up with what professional observers considered practically impossible to catch - this time without the flood and the Iraq war. On election day, the SPD was only 1% and 4 seats behind the Union parties.
Since 2009, Merkel had the chancellor bonus on her side and always converted it into the necessary lead for the Union on election day. But this time, for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, there will be no more incumbent. The race for the Chancellery is therefore more open than ever. For a long time, their meager competence values dragged the SPD down as a party in the polls. The corona crisis pushed up like a wall in front of all other political issues - and as long as the federal government seemed to be managing it well, the citizens, above all, served the chancellor and her party with a new high in the surveys.
Als das Pendel umschlug, profitierten zunächst die Grünen als Oppositionspartei, die sich schon länger im allgemeinen Aufwind befanden. Insbesondere als CDU und CSU den Machtkampf um Merkels Nachfolge auf offener Bühne austrugen und der in der Bevölkerung deutlich unbeliebtere Armin Laschet sich gegen den populären Markus Söder durchsetzen konnte, während die Grünen die Machtfrage – für sie ganz untypisch – im Hinterzimmer auskungelten und Annalena Baerbock nominierten, schienen sie für viele Menschen als eine wählbare, professionelle Alternative zum gefühlten Dauerabonnement der Unionsparteien auf das Kanzleramt.
However, largely through her own stupid mistakes, the green hopefuls stumbled these sympathies again, so that the audience turned back to the Chancellor's party. However, with every day that Armin Laschet appears in public, his personal polls decrease. With his inexplicable failure to laugh during the flood disaster, they practically fell into the abyss. Since then, Scholz has made huge gains in the polls and is clearly ahead of his two competitors in terms of chancellor preference. In the meantime, he is also pulling the SPD up from its permanent low - which only a few professional observers dared to publicly believe.
Wenn er die Stimmung halten kann und es vermag, seine Partei und ihre Unzulänglichkeiten weiter gut zu verstecken, dann kann er tatsächlich noch die Wahl gewinnen und die SPD zur stärksten Fraktion im Bundestag machen. Insbesondere die eher unpolitischen Wähler, gehören zu jenen bis zu 40%, die sich stark an der Kandidatenpräferenz orientieren und oft eher die Unentschlossenen sind, welche sich tatsächlich erst in den letzten Wochen und Tagen vor der Wahl entscheiden, welcher Partei sie ihre Stimme tatsächlich geben werden. Dieses Phänomen war für die SPD bei allen letztendlich doch noch gewonnen Landtagswahlen der vergangenen Jahre im Übrigen ebenso zu beobachten: Der Ministerpräsident oder die Ministerpräsidentin gaben den Ausschlag für einen auf den letzten Metern sehr deutlichen Wahlsieg – obwohl Umfragen monatelang praktisch das Gegenteil prognostiziert hatten.
Whether an SPD election victory can actually take place or whether the current momentum subsides again will depend not least on the TV duels between the three applicants for the Chancellery. The image of Scholz solidifies as "Best man for Ms. Merkel's job" and if he outshines the mediocre competence of his party and its other leaders, he will really win in the end. If the Union and the Greens manage to cast a sufficiently positive opinion on issues and competencies against the SPD, it is more likely that the values of the Social Democrats will collapse again. The decisive factor is who, after the TV appearances, receives which competencies and which leadership strengths from which electorate.
Nonetheless, the question of who will actually become Federal Chancellor in the end depends very much on the possible coalition majorities in the Bundestag. So far, it looks like this time the FDP will play the role of kingmaker.
