{"id":243,"date":"2021-08-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-30T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alp-advisors.com\/?p=243"},"modified":"2021-08-31T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2021-08-30T22:00:00","slug":"deutschland-bleibt-kanzlerdemokratie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alp-advisors.com\/en\/blog\/deutschland-bleibt-kanzlerdemokratie\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany remains chancellor democracy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Berlin, den 31.08.2021, Autor: Matthias Ilgen<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current figures from the survey institutes confirm what some political scientists have been saying for 12 months, but which earned the laughter of the entire audience until four weeks ago: the SPD can still win the federal election. In the political mood, she has at least caught up with the Union and left the Greens well behind. If this trend continues, it will have an even greater impact on the projection on the Sunday question in the next few days and weeks - the closer to election day, the more likely it will be real votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where does the sudden one come from \"Comrade Trend\"? The main reason for this lies in the candidate question, which for more than a third of voters is still the most important and decisive for their own voting decision: Who should be Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany?&nbsp;<em>\u201eGenosse Trend\u201c<\/em>? Die Ursache liegt vor allem in der Kandidatenfrage, die immer noch f\u00fcr mehr als ein Drittel der W\u00e4hlerinnen und W\u00e4hler die ma\u00dfgebliche und entscheidende f\u00fcr ihre eigene Wahlentscheidung ist: Wer soll Bundeskanzler der Bundesrepublik Deutschland sein?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This question has played a crucial role since the first federal election in 1949. Adenauer had put himself in the limelight as chairman of the parliamentary council on radio and in the press and, together with the Union parties, was surprisingly able to leave the election winner expected by all sides behind: the SPD. This resulted in 20 years of permanent rule by the CDU and CSU in the federal government. Adenauer could 1957 at the height of his power the union with the slogan \"No experiments\" even lead to an absolute majority. The Union only lost power in 1969 when it faced a new social-liberal government majority with two far less popular chancellors after a grand coalition from which the SPD emerged as a profiteer.&nbsp;<em>\u201eKeine Experimente\u201c<\/em>&nbsp;sogar zur absoluten Mehrheit f\u00fchren. Die Union verlor die Macht 1969 erst als sie mit zwei weit weniger beliebten Kanzlern nach einer gro\u00dfen Koalition, aus welcher die SPD als Profiteur hervorging, einer neuen sozialliberalen Regierungsmehrheit gegen\u00fcberstand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Auch die SPD-Kanzler Brandt und Schmidt profitierten davon, dass sie sich in ihren Beliebtheitswerten weit von Ihrer Partei absetzen und so in den 70er Jahren die Mehrheiten f\u00fcr die sozialliberale Koalition sichern konnten. 1980 fiel der sogenannte Kanzlerbonus kurioserweise der FDP zu, die sogar dreist mit Schmidts Namen auf ihren Wahlplakaten geworben hatte. Entsprechend verloren die Liberalen bei den vorgezogenen Neuwahlen zum Bundestag 1983 beinahe die H\u00e4lfte Ihrer Mitglieder und W\u00e4hler, nachdem sie im Oktober 1982 in der laufenden Wahlperiode die Seiten zur Union gewechselt und Schmidt gest\u00fcrzt hatte, um Helmut Kohl ins Amt zu bringen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kohl also put four social democratic challengers to flight. Only when the much more popular Gerhard Schr\u00f6der took office after 16 long years and a poor labor market record for the Christian-liberal government after reunification, did he and the SPD pass Kohl and the Union. In 2002, in addition to the final spurt about the flood disaster and the Iraq war in favor of the government, it was above all the person of the Chancellor who saved the SPD its wafer-thin victory over the finish line. 42% of the SPD voters stated that they had chosen the party primarily because of the person of the Federal Chancellor - Schr\u00f6der's popularity was about twice as high as that of his CSU challenger Edmund Stoiber, to whom his competitive edge in economic issues was ultimately of no use either .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2005, Angela Merkel had lost the election almost in the last few meters, mainly because of the continued high level of sympathy for the incumbent at the time, Gerhard Schr\u00f6der. The Union floated high in the polls for months because red-green had only had a mixed government balance sheet until then. Nevertheless, the Chancellor scored one last time with his personality and caught up with what professional observers considered practically impossible to catch - this time without the flood and the Iraq war. On election day, the SPD was only 1% and 4 seats behind the Union parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 2009, Merkel had the chancellor bonus on her side and always converted it into the necessary lead for the Union on election day. But this time, for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, there will be no more incumbent. The race for the Chancellery is therefore more open than ever. For a long time, their meager competence values dragged the SPD down as a party in the polls. The corona crisis pushed up like a wall in front of all other political issues - and as long as the federal government seemed to be managing it well, the citizens, above all, served the chancellor and her party with a new high in the surveys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Als das Pendel umschlug, profitierten zun\u00e4chst die Gr\u00fcnen als Oppositionspartei, die sich schon l\u00e4nger im allgemeinen Aufwind befanden. Insbesondere als CDU und CSU den Machtkampf um Merkels Nachfolge auf offener B\u00fchne austrugen und der in der Bev\u00f6lkerung deutlich unbeliebtere Armin Laschet sich gegen den popul\u00e4ren Markus S\u00f6der durchsetzen konnte, w\u00e4hrend die Gr\u00fcnen die Machtfrage \u2013 f\u00fcr sie ganz untypisch \u2013 im Hinterzimmer auskungelten und Annalena Baerbock nominierten, schienen sie f\u00fcr viele Menschen als eine w\u00e4hlbare, professionelle Alternative zum gef\u00fchlten Dauerabonnement der Unionsparteien auf das Kanzleramt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, largely through her own stupid mistakes, the green hopefuls stumbled these sympathies again, so that the audience turned back to the Chancellor's party. However, with every day that Armin Laschet appears in public, his personal polls decrease. With his inexplicable failure to laugh during the flood disaster, they practically fell into the abyss. Since then, Scholz has made huge gains in the polls and is clearly ahead of his two competitors in terms of chancellor preference. In the meantime, he is also pulling the SPD up from its permanent low - which only a few professional observers dared to publicly believe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wenn er die Stimmung halten kann und es vermag, seine Partei und ihre Unzul\u00e4nglichkeiten weiter gut zu verstecken, dann kann er tats\u00e4chlich noch die Wahl gewinnen und die SPD zur st\u00e4rksten Fraktion im Bundestag machen. Insbesondere die eher unpolitischen W\u00e4hler, geh\u00f6ren zu jenen bis zu 40%, die sich stark an der Kandidatenpr\u00e4ferenz orientieren und oft eher die Unentschlossenen sind, welche sich tats\u00e4chlich erst in den letzten Wochen und Tagen vor der Wahl entscheiden, welcher Partei sie ihre Stimme tats\u00e4chlich geben werden. Dieses Ph\u00e4nomen war f\u00fcr die SPD bei allen letztendlich doch noch gewonnen Landtagswahlen der vergangenen Jahre im \u00dcbrigen ebenso zu beobachten: Der Ministerpr\u00e4sident oder die Ministerpr\u00e4sidentin gaben den Ausschlag f\u00fcr einen auf den letzten Metern sehr deutlichen Wahlsieg \u2013 obwohl Umfragen monatelang praktisch das Gegenteil prognostiziert hatten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether an SPD election victory can actually take place or whether the current momentum subsides again will depend not least on the TV duels between the three applicants for the Chancellery. The image of Scholz solidifies as&nbsp;<em>\"Best man for Ms. Merkel's job\"<\/em>&nbsp;and if he outshines the mediocre competence of his party and its other leaders, he will really win in the end. If the Union and the Greens manage to cast a sufficiently positive opinion on issues and competencies against the SPD, it is more likely that the values of the Social Democrats will collapse again. The decisive factor is who, after the TV appearances, receives which competencies and which leadership strengths from which electorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nonetheless, the question of who will actually become Federal Chancellor in the end depends very much on the possible coalition majorities in the Bundestag. So far, it looks like this time the FDP will play the role of kingmaker.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Die aktuellen Zahlen des \u201eZDF-Politbarometers\u201c und der \u201eBild am Sonntag\u201c best\u00e4tigen, was mancher Politikwissenschaftler&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5403,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-allgemein"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Deutschland bleibt Kanzlerdemokratie - ALP | Advanced Level Politics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.alp-advisors.com\/en\/blog\/deutschland-bleibt-kanzlerdemokratie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Deutschland bleibt Kanzlerdemokratie - 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